More Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe is on the front lines with relative good and liberal guys versus very bad and vicious authoritarians. It looks rather obvious that 28-year incumbent President (originally, but now certainly dictator) Robert Mugabe has lost the Presidential election by a significant margin. After seeming indecision during the week it now looks as if he is going forward with a plan to maintain power by any possible method. The government is withholding the results for the presidential election without reason, and looks set to reverse the opposition's win in the legislative election. Aiming to distract the populace, Mugabe is now having his cronies seize much of the property of the remaining tiny white minority. He is vowing to defend Zimbabwe from a "White invasion".

Here's some numbers from the Times on this aspect of the current situation

Mugabe's land grab

— 4,000 white-owned farms have been taken over since 2000

— 18 white farmers have been killed since the farm invasions began

— In 2007 one of the last remaining white farmers was strangled by intruders in what campaigners called a “political hit”

— An estimated 400 white farmers remain in Zimbabwe

— 44 per cent of land seized was being cultivated in 2005 and the remainder was lying fallow

— Maize production fell by 74 per cent between 1999 and 2004

Naturally, this is a bad policy and extremely unfair and racist towards the remaining whites in the country. But of course, the vast bulk of the harm of these policies is inflicted on the ordinary Zimbabweans of African descent. Mugabe's plan seems to be to paint any opposition to him as tools of the white extreme-minority or the liberal international community. This is an extremely (Isn't everything extreme in Zimbabwe now) unproductive long term strategy, as it will further destabilize the economy.

But, of course, Mugabe needs to keep his cronies loyal. That is his short-term goal, and giving them more land is a way to do this. Racism is a convenient and perhaps popular cover. He needs the military and veterans on his side if he wants to maintain his regime, as he certainly has limited public support now. As long as he keeps the guys with the guns on his side, he'll probably be able to maintain himself in office for a while longer. Fortunately, it appears there may be a little splintering of the remaining support for him. Also, local police do not seem to be very supportive, after the hyperinflation destroyed their wages (Land is a much better inflation hedge).

So, there are two ways I see this ending soon with Mugabe loosing power:
1. Mugabe's cronies turn against him, probably reacting to the popular opposition to him and the threat continued support poses to them in the long term. After all, he's just about a dead horse for them.
2. South Africa puts pressure on Mugabe to not crack down on the opposition. Sadly under Mbeki, South Africa has practiced disappointing realpolitik, and thus far has been supportive of Mugabe. However, if events continue to move in the direction they appear to be going, this position may become untenable for the government.