Choices with Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe is slowly moving to a run off election, which it appears has already been decided by the intimidation of Robert Mugabe’s thugs (And the legion of dead voters who votes 100% for ZANU-PF).

The relatively liberal minded international community has a couple options when dealing with an autocrat stubbornly and viciously clinging to power, like Robert Mugabe. Basically, they can offer him immunity to just leave or they can leave open the possibility of criminal prosecution once he is out of office.

Mugabe and his cronies’ biggest fear is prosecution. They don't want to end up like Charles Taylor. With the crimes they have committed and continue to commit, they would almost certainly face prosecution once out of office. So, Mugabe and his cronies desperately need to keep the old man in office. Their lives pretty much depend on it. As a result, they are willing to participate in some very nasty behavior in order to maintain his government. Their guilt for this additional brutal behavior reinforces their need to maintain power.

So, one way to get guys like Mugabe out is to promise immunity if they agree to peacefully leave office. Such a promise would have a chance of persuading Robert Mugabe to go. Zimbabwe would be better off in the near term. Zimbabwe has a lot of problems, and all of these problems would probably be better handled in the coming years with another government. But of course, this path lets the guilty men go free.

Prosecuting these criminals certainly is more morally appealing. However, the threat of prosecution is one of the reasons Mugabe clings to office. So, here’s what I think is the decisive point: If the international community prosecutes regimes for crimes against humanity that will create a huge incentive against future crimes against humanity. The Romans understood this incentive. In the Roman Republic after their one-year terms, Consuls would strand trial for their behavior in office. If you want less bad behavior, increase the price of it. Mugabe should spend the rest of his life in court or jail, and let that be a warning to folks who could follow his path.

P.S. Another route would be the actual route Charles Taylor’s post presidency took. Promise him immunity if he leaves and then renege. Of course, this is a reason promises of immunity won’t have much force if offer now, which makes the choice easier.