Choices with Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe is slowly moving to a run off election, which it appears has already been decided by the intimidation of Robert Mugabe’s thugs (And the legion of dead voters who votes 100% for ZANU-PF).

The relatively liberal minded international community has a couple options when dealing with an autocrat stubbornly and viciously clinging to power, like Robert Mugabe. Basically, they can offer him immunity to just leave or they can leave open the possibility of criminal prosecution once he is out of office.

Mugabe and his cronies’ biggest fear is prosecution. They don't want to end up like Charles Taylor. With the crimes they have committed and continue to commit, they would almost certainly face prosecution once out of office. So, Mugabe and his cronies desperately need to keep the old man in office. Their lives pretty much depend on it. As a result, they are willing to participate in some very nasty behavior in order to maintain his government. Their guilt for this additional brutal behavior reinforces their need to maintain power.

So, one way to get guys like Mugabe out is to promise immunity if they agree to peacefully leave office. Such a promise would have a chance of persuading Robert Mugabe to go. Zimbabwe would be better off in the near term. Zimbabwe has a lot of problems, and all of these problems would probably be better handled in the coming years with another government. But of course, this path lets the guilty men go free.

Prosecuting these criminals certainly is more morally appealing. However, the threat of prosecution is one of the reasons Mugabe clings to office. So, here’s what I think is the decisive point: If the international community prosecutes regimes for crimes against humanity that will create a huge incentive against future crimes against humanity. The Romans understood this incentive. In the Roman Republic after their one-year terms, Consuls would strand trial for their behavior in office. If you want less bad behavior, increase the price of it. Mugabe should spend the rest of his life in court or jail, and let that be a warning to folks who could follow his path.

P.S. Another route would be the actual route Charles Taylor’s post presidency took. Promise him immunity if he leaves and then renege. Of course, this is a reason promises of immunity won’t have much force if offer now, which makes the choice easier.

More Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe is on the front lines with relative good and liberal guys versus very bad and vicious authoritarians. It looks rather obvious that 28-year incumbent President (originally, but now certainly dictator) Robert Mugabe has lost the Presidential election by a significant margin. After seeming indecision during the week it now looks as if he is going forward with a plan to maintain power by any possible method. The government is withholding the results for the presidential election without reason, and looks set to reverse the opposition's win in the legislative election. Aiming to distract the populace, Mugabe is now having his cronies seize much of the property of the remaining tiny white minority. He is vowing to defend Zimbabwe from a "White invasion".

Here's some numbers from the Times on this aspect of the current situation

Mugabe's land grab

— 4,000 white-owned farms have been taken over since 2000

— 18 white farmers have been killed since the farm invasions began

— In 2007 one of the last remaining white farmers was strangled by intruders in what campaigners called a “political hit”

— An estimated 400 white farmers remain in Zimbabwe

— 44 per cent of land seized was being cultivated in 2005 and the remainder was lying fallow

— Maize production fell by 74 per cent between 1999 and 2004

Naturally, this is a bad policy and extremely unfair and racist towards the remaining whites in the country. But of course, the vast bulk of the harm of these policies is inflicted on the ordinary Zimbabweans of African descent. Mugabe's plan seems to be to paint any opposition to him as tools of the white extreme-minority or the liberal international community. This is an extremely (Isn't everything extreme in Zimbabwe now) unproductive long term strategy, as it will further destabilize the economy.

But, of course, Mugabe needs to keep his cronies loyal. That is his short-term goal, and giving them more land is a way to do this. Racism is a convenient and perhaps popular cover. He needs the military and veterans on his side if he wants to maintain his regime, as he certainly has limited public support now. As long as he keeps the guys with the guns on his side, he'll probably be able to maintain himself in office for a while longer. Fortunately, it appears there may be a little splintering of the remaining support for him. Also, local police do not seem to be very supportive, after the hyperinflation destroyed their wages (Land is a much better inflation hedge).

So, there are two ways I see this ending soon with Mugabe loosing power:
1. Mugabe's cronies turn against him, probably reacting to the popular opposition to him and the threat continued support poses to them in the long term. After all, he's just about a dead horse for them.
2. South Africa puts pressure on Mugabe to not crack down on the opposition. Sadly under Mbeki, South Africa has practiced disappointing realpolitik, and thus far has been supportive of Mugabe. However, if events continue to move in the direction they appear to be going, this position may become untenable for the government.

Zimbabwe

It will be quite interesting to see how Robert Mugabe and his cronies handle these next few days. It is apparent from pre election polls and unofficial tallies that his ZANU-PF party has no chance of staying in office with a free count. Mugabe has managed to hold on to power over the last decade by using two broad tactics:
1. Patronage sometimes tinged with racism, where the government seizes the property of whites and distributes that property to Mugabe’s cronies (This has the added benefits of reminding voters of Mugabe’s role in the struggle against white rule).
2. Violence and electoral fraud.

However, it has become extremely clear to Zimbabweans that he is ruining their country. Unfortunately, an extreme interpretation of the Philips Curve aside, inflation of 1,000% per day is quite bad for the economy. It makes holding paper currency for any period of time a very bad investment, and encourages all kinds of unproductive behavior. Undermining private property has been quite harmful for the economy as well. Not only does it cheapen contracts, but also Mugabe’s redistribution policies have taken farmland away from those most skilled at running it. As a result, land is misused and vacant, and the country is starving. A sizable share of the population has left the country. The Economist reports one of the most startling statistics - that the life expectancy in Zimbabwe, which was once the highest in sub-Sharan Africa, is now one of the lowest at 36. Within the last month, the Mugabe signed an act allowing the government to transfer the majority share of a business owned by any non-indigenous Zimbabweans to anyone who was discriminated against prior to 1980. The aim appears to have been to drum up some racist support and drive out the 0.5% or so of the population that is white.

Mugabe does not have much chance of winning a legitimate count this election, but he does need to some public support to maintain his legitimacy and his handouts will help maintain that. It seems most likely, but not inevitable, that the government will fudge the electoral math as it did in 2002. Many times more dead people will vote than ever did in Chicago. This will be widely condemned, but Mugabe will hold on for a while. However, it is possible that Mugabe will let his own defeat stand or rather his cronies will refuse the excessive cheating necessary to maintain him in office. I think that is the best hope for his removal. Mugabe’s cronies know the country is on a disastrous course. Makoni and his faction have already broken. Some of the remaining loyalists must realize that the amount of possible goods they can loot is declining. Furthermore, they are aware that Mugabe is 84 and won’t be around forever. When he dies, there is no obvious successor to keep the coalition together. They need to make preparations for the end of the regime, which is looking increasingly likely. Hopefully, this leads to a surprisingly rapid transformation to a relatively function democracy and more rational policies. We will learn a lot in the next few days.